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Insight - It’s far too risky to assume that the bottom is in

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So this bounce involves great, indeed unprecedented, confidence that the Fed will soon execute a dramatic pivot. Is this premature? Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Lisa Shalett certainly thinks so, and comes up with a great Wayne’s World reference to make her point in a Monday note: “With another 75-basis-point hike in the fed funds rate, inflation metrics rolling over and recession indicators flashing

THE last month saw quite a rally, followed by a relaxingly dull day to start August.

Markets never move in a perfect straight line, and protracted selloffs include plenty of invigorating rallies.

Even after the hot July, this sello-ff is still somewhat more intense than either of those.

That said, the July rebound was truly something to behold.

My colleague Cameron Crise had a great Macro Man column on the Bloomberg terminal yesterday in which he looked at all incidents in which the S&P dropped 7.5% in one calendar month and regained at least that much in the following month. It doesn’t happen often.

In fact, this is only the sixth such occurrence since World War II. The others came in October 1974, October 2002, March 2009, January 2019 and April 2020.

Regular readers will recognise those as famous buying opportunities when the market was at or near a major bottom.

The S&P 500’s average return 12 months after these turnarounds: 30%.

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False all-clears do happen during long bear markets but this rebound is quite something.

Cameron also notes that there were five such incidents between 1931 and 1940, and most of them were terrible times to buy.

By comparison with the Depression era, all of the five turnarounds since 1974 came once the Federal Reserve (Fed) had already slashed rates very aggressively.

That hasn’t happened yet, and surely can’t happen for a while. So this bounce involves great, indeed unprecedented, confidence that the Fed will soon execute a dramatic pivot.

Is this premature? Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Lisa Shalett certainly thinks so, and comes up with a great Wayne’s World reference to make her point in a Monday note: “With another 75-basis-point hike in the fed funds rate, inflation metrics rolling over and recession indicators flashing

red, both stocks and bonds have rallied on the prospect of a policy pivot. Mission accomplished? Not!”

She is sticking to the view that we’ve just witnessed a big bear-market rally, driven by investors who “seem to believe that inflation is defeated and expect the Fed will start cutting the fed funds rate as soon as next March.”

Concern that rising interest rates will drive the economy into a recession has been escalating as the Fed tightens monetary policy aggressively to bring down the steepest inflation in four decades. Chair Jerome Powell has said that failing to restore price stability would be a “bigger mistake” than pushing the US into a recession, which he has continued to maintain the nation can avoid.

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